Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 103182.394311 108695.450978 114200.790570 120107.335456 126261.202220 132480.082500 139235.950517
2025-08-24 94826.012244 103323.352092 112038.190384 121633.192147 131889.441841 142512.756784 154336.779534
2025-08-31 87802.089962 98284.476486 109265.270289 121603.384038 135057.252780 149259.674267 165362.541647
2025-09-07 83472.161555 95554.990643 108436.028525 123152.711553 139462.598649 156945.808621 177064.565517
2025-09-14 79642.221235 92986.688416 107432.900686 124179.228682 143000.520841 163443.088730 187266.944383
2025-09-21 75829.426243 90146.187215 105863.383252 124324.197749 145335.846267 168427.768566 195644.021470
2025-09-28 72514.188449 87651.998263 104485.891809 124497.585550 147537.334878 173129.413921 203599.895715
2025-10-05 70608.184410 86640.359920 104676.616724 126349.809503 151558.936780 179826.568752 213785.428089
2025-10-12 68724.957371 85536.820026 104658.091428 127868.581490 155125.043642 185958.332501 223308.212762
2025-10-19 66620.404877 84062.394204 104110.087546 128681.944413 157801.271177 191018.169077 231572.849643
2025-10-26 64349.390166 82286.784262 103115.254847 128883.947979 159690.423361 195114.171733 238688.840213
2025-11-02 62422.886892 80843.683436 102441.780451 129400.154248 161896.219427 199544.603516 246182.084648
2025-11-09 60376.051426 79200.831321 101488.818899 129556.031189 163668.769041 203486.554367 253155.909290
2025-11-16 59126.084640 78492.324598 101630.103576 131007.609558 166985.425856 209269.664675 262353.266660
2025-11-23 57187.436961 76854.709572 100571.274896 130936.944837 168413.602916 212767.114577 268808.587134
2025-11-30 56211.027523 76386.846791 100921.910907 132573.717105 171910.070377 218755.759073 278287.986258
2025-12-07 55032.558587 75616.086567 100856.349992 133661.870410 174712.052908 223899.100335 286760.393801
2025-12-14 53480.740489 74313.759752 100076.770255 133815.356792 176325.291687 227575.879213 293445.742307
2025-12-21 52025.023678 73088.566425 99352.156558 133999.380704 177946.758618 231246.171283 300123.366372
2025-12-28 51449.097649 72988.729277 100043.194872 135966.162018 181801.175348 237681.511082 310240.175418
2026-01-04 50749.123550 72698.305021 100468.161132 137578.647662 185205.184257 243569.528159 319710.513541
2026-01-11 49760.158416 71991.598761 100327.439928 138442.113967 187646.507579 248259.021579 327708.342574
2026-01-18 48541.316593 70940.954815 99706.778832 138656.551839 189239.463440 251877.909576 334374.994136